It’s no secret that I’ve been quite vocal in my opposition to the Tory candidate in North-East Somerset, Jacob Rees-Mogg, so it will come as no surprise that through my suggestion box I’ve received an interesting piece of gossip from someone in and around parliament. (Signed “Placement Student”) I’m evidently quite occupied with French Elections right now, but see what you make of this:

Constituents may be shocked to learn that the Takeover Panel’s investigation of Kraft’s acquisition of Cadbury’s is NOT as a result of Rees-Mogg’s letter to them.

Of course Rees-Mogg wrote a letter to the panel, it is believed (so I am told) that the investigation was launched following a request from the Business, Innovation and Skills Dept as soon as the decision to close Somerdale was announced.

Obviously this was well before Rees-Mogg, late in the day, as ever, tried to do anything about this. What it all means is that having been utterly silent on the issue for several weeks Rees-Mogg has tried to bag the credit for precipitating something that was already in motion.

It is my understanding that The Takeover Panel DO NOT comment to the media or anybody else on what investigations they are carrying out. Therefore, news that they ARE investigating this can only have come from an unofficial source. I have no idea who this might be, but it could well be a case of “friends in the City”. Rees-Mogg cannot even have received a letter from the Panel saying so, because such documents do not exist.

To Rees-Mogg’s actual credit, as opposed to the credit he tends to claim, he’s very consistent in the way he works. Say nothing until you have to, then not just hop on, but pretend you were driving the bandwagon all along!

Here are theresults for the First Round of the Regional Elections;

Parti Socialiste: 29.5%
UMP: 27%
Europe Ecologie: 12.5%
Front National: 11.7%
Front de Gauche: 6.2%
Modem: 4%
Extreme Gauche: 3.7%

Participation: VERY LOW around 46.5%

Conclusions:

• This is the worst score the UMP has ever had. Sarkozy was nowhere to be seen the entire night, and typically the Prime Minister, Francois Fillon was left holding the bag.
• Segolene Royal won 39% of the vote, evidently that’s amazing strong.
• The Greens have been able to secure their place as the third force in French Politics though they are a long way behind the Socialists, the orange MoDem people have been confined to the dustbin.

Now for the results in my regon of Provence Alpes Cote D’azur, which make for interesting reading:

Parti Socialiste: 26%
UMP: 26%
Front National: 20%
Europe Ecologie: 11%
Front de Gauche: 6.5%

So the PS and the UMP are neck and neck, which is amazing for the Left in an area like this. The Greens are able to go to the second round but I think it will be more likely that they fuse lists with the Socialists, likewise the FDG.

The FN have struck big here. One the one side you have Toulon, the most fascist town in the country, and then on top of it you have Jean-Marie Le Pen, a brand by himself. I think he enjoyed an emotional vote as it is the last time he’ll be a candidate.

It just goes to show there is still a lot to play for; but overall it was an excellent night for the Parti Socialiste.

Tomorrow I return to France to help the Parti Socialiste in the Regional Elections on Sundays the 14^th and the 22^nd. I’ve written previously about the corner I’ll be fighting in Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur here and here, and more recently about the polls predicting a socialist victory here.

The lead is not restricted to PACA though, as the PS is widely expected to guard its monopoly over regional government, perhaps even taking control Alsace and Corsica as well.

Below is a map that shows the results from the previous elections in 2004, and in 1998:

Polls generally put the Socialists around two or three points ahead for the first round, and once the Greens, MoDem, and Front National parties get knocked out on Sunday, we’ll see a straightforward duel between the Parti Socialiste and the UMP.

I was generally expecting an unpleasant prognosis for the PS, as the (predicted) success is probably more despite the leadership of the party than because of it, which confirms my general perception of French Politics: decentralised campaigns for a centralised state. The PS in particular is very weak and ineffective at a national level (see the problems between Segolene Royal and Martine Aubry), yet incredibly effective at a regional and local level, there still remains many nigh-unconquerable socialist bastions.

So the PS is likely to win in spite of itself, with the real emphasis of the vote going to punish Sarkozy midway through his presidential term. His right-wing Union pour un Movement Populaire has also suffered from the disastrously explosive debate on National Identity, hijacked by far-right.

What we have seen is a huge change in media narrative. Following its paltry score of 16% in the EU Parliament elections in June, the press declared that the Parti Socialiste was now a party in terminal decline, predicting that the Greens (Les Verts) would become the new party of opposition. Instead, the storyline has reversed, and now points to a resurgence after a long period of self-reflection.

The problems in Greece are forcing the creation of the European Union’s own instrument to tackle financial crises in the euro zone.

Proposals have surfaced from the European Commission which builds on suggestions from France and Germany to create a European Monetary Fund, in order to reinforce economic coordination and provide help to countries in difficulty.

The Monetary and Economic spokesman said that the European Commission was ready to create such an organisation, though added that it would require support from all euro zone member states.

The proposals have thus been given Brussels’ backing, having been launched by the German finance minister in consultation with France.

The aim is to secure the stability of the euro zone, which requires an institution like the International Monetary Fund, and other similarly interventionist powers, though the Commissioner stated that any “EMF” would still act under strict conditions and would be no less demanding than those of the IMF.

The project has also received support from German Chancellor Angela Merkel as a way to combat the crisis in Greece despite the fact she deliberately avoided mentioning it, and warned that the project would require an amendment to the Treaty of Lisbon. She added that it would be necessary to decide first who and how the fund will be paid for, as well as its relationship with the European Commission and to discuss the sanctions imposed on countries that break the conditions of the Growth and Stability Pact.

However the EMF has already come under strict criticism from the Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, Jurgen Stark, who claimed that “such a fund would undermine the success of the Euro and the European Union”. The ECB president, Jean-Claude Trichet, was equally hostile to the idea intervention of the IMF in Greece.

It is worth noting that a soft of EMF was originally proposed by the President of the Party of European Socialists. The project was already a part of their initial crisis resolution package, but the Commission’s attitude has been too centred on the monetary aspect instead of looking for ways to promote growth and employment while combating financial speculators.

Students in Bath have received a leaflet from the local Conservative party asking for their opinions and trying to mobilise the “student vote” in their favour.

The leaflet, presumably financed by Lord Ashcroft, has been addressed individually to every student in town. See below for the scans:

It is despicable yet typical that Bath Tories would try to scaremonger students into thinking something is happening and the Tories are the only ones who can do anything about it. Please note that the Tories are running the council, they could have sent out a memo when there was “more time”.

Of all the problems with this leaflet, perhaps the worst part is the patronising and naked bias. The question posed is:

“Should students be forced to live on campus?”

I would like to know what answer they are expecting, having sent this question exclusively to STUDENTS. The responses are equally ludicrous:

[_] I believe students should be forced to live on campus for the whole of their course
[_] I believe students should not be forced to live on campus, but be free to rent a house in Bath.

The only type of student I can imagine who would even consider the first option would already be an active member of Bath Conservative Future.

In all my political experience, in Britain, in France, in Spain, and of all the many leaflets from all the many parties I’ve encountered, I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a ham-handed and clumsy way of data mining to gather targeted voting-intention information. Once they’ve got you, they’re not going to let you go unless you text this, email that, then post the other.

Moving on to substance, students may find that this is the first they have heard of such a debate or decision. There have been a few ideas knocking around on the topic of housing, which got Lib Dem MP Don Foster into hot water in the University Newspaper.

Not only is the “decision” broadly fictitious, it’s also completely infeasible to move 10,000 students onto campus. There is no space. Unless the Tories are planning to build a massive tower block, not that the University would want to waste funds on such a project, while throwing away Bath’s World Heritage Status (which the council uses an excuse not to do anything ever). Bath would probably not enjoy the prospect of becoming the country’s only university with such a silly policy and thus losing however many applicants. It would also wreak havoc on the Oldfield Park economy, which has already suffered the collapse of Woolworths.

Students should be alarmed that such an important debate can take place without them knowing or being informed. Let’s thank these Bath Tories for informing us just in time!

So no, Fabian. No, we will not be terrorised, no, we will not be forced to live on campus and NO, we will not be voting Conservative!