Tomorrow I return to France to help the Parti Socialiste in the Regional Elections on Sundays the 14^th and the 22^nd. I’ve written previously about the corner I’ll be fighting in Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur here and here, and more recently about the polls predicting a socialist victory here.

The lead is not restricted to PACA though, as the PS is widely expected to guard its monopoly over regional government, perhaps even taking control Alsace and Corsica as well.

Below is a map that shows the results from the previous elections in 2004, and in 1998:

Polls generally put the Socialists around two or three points ahead for the first round, and once the Greens, MoDem, and Front National parties get knocked out on Sunday, we’ll see a straightforward duel between the Parti Socialiste and the UMP.

I was generally expecting an unpleasant prognosis for the PS, as the (predicted) success is probably more despite the leadership of the party than because of it, which confirms my general perception of French Politics: decentralised campaigns for a centralised state. The PS in particular is very weak and ineffective at a national level (see the problems between Segolene Royal and Martine Aubry), yet incredibly effective at a regional and local level, there still remains many nigh-unconquerable socialist bastions.

So the PS is likely to win in spite of itself, with the real emphasis of the vote going to punish Sarkozy midway through his presidential term. His right-wing Union pour un Movement Populaire has also suffered from the disastrously explosive debate on National Identity, hijacked by far-right.

What we have seen is a huge change in media narrative. Following its paltry score of 16% in the EU Parliament elections in June, the press declared that the Parti Socialiste was now a party in terminal decline, predicting that the Greens (Les Verts) would become the new party of opposition. Instead, the storyline has reversed, and now points to a resurgence after a long period of self-reflection.

The problems in Greece are forcing the creation of the European Union’s own instrument to tackle financial crises in the euro zone.

Proposals have surfaced from the European Commission which builds on suggestions from France and Germany to create a European Monetary Fund, in order to reinforce economic coordination and provide help to countries in difficulty.

The Monetary and Economic spokesman said that the European Commission was ready to create such an organisation, though added that it would require support from all euro zone member states.

The proposals have thus been given Brussels’ backing, having been launched by the German finance minister in consultation with France.

The aim is to secure the stability of the euro zone, which requires an institution like the International Monetary Fund, and other similarly interventionist powers, though the Commissioner stated that any “EMF” would still act under strict conditions and would be no less demanding than those of the IMF.

The project has also received support from German Chancellor Angela Merkel as a way to combat the crisis in Greece despite the fact she deliberately avoided mentioning it, and warned that the project would require an amendment to the Treaty of Lisbon. She added that it would be necessary to decide first who and how the fund will be paid for, as well as its relationship with the European Commission and to discuss the sanctions imposed on countries that break the conditions of the Growth and Stability Pact.

However the EMF has already come under strict criticism from the Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, Jurgen Stark, who claimed that “such a fund would undermine the success of the Euro and the European Union”. The ECB president, Jean-Claude Trichet, was equally hostile to the idea intervention of the IMF in Greece.

It is worth noting that a soft of EMF was originally proposed by the President of the Party of European Socialists. The project was already a part of their initial crisis resolution package, but the Commission’s attitude has been too centred on the monetary aspect instead of looking for ways to promote growth and employment while combating financial speculators.

Students in Bath have received a leaflet from the local Conservative party asking for their opinions and trying to mobilise the “student vote” in their favour.

The leaflet, presumably financed by Lord Ashcroft, has been addressed individually to every student in town. See below for the scans:

It is despicable yet typical that Bath Tories would try to scaremonger students into thinking something is happening and the Tories are the only ones who can do anything about it. Please note that the Tories are running the council, they could have sent out a memo when there was “more time”.

Of all the problems with this leaflet, perhaps the worst part is the patronising and naked bias. The question posed is:

“Should students be forced to live on campus?”

I would like to know what answer they are expecting, having sent this question exclusively to STUDENTS. The responses are equally ludicrous:

[_] I believe students should be forced to live on campus for the whole of their course
[_] I believe students should not be forced to live on campus, but be free to rent a house in Bath.

The only type of student I can imagine who would even consider the first option would already be an active member of Bath Conservative Future.

In all my political experience, in Britain, in France, in Spain, and of all the many leaflets from all the many parties I’ve encountered, I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a ham-handed and clumsy way of data mining to gather targeted voting-intention information. Once they’ve got you, they’re not going to let you go unless you text this, email that, then post the other.

Moving on to substance, students may find that this is the first they have heard of such a debate or decision. There have been a few ideas knocking around on the topic of housing, which got Lib Dem MP Don Foster into hot water in the University Newspaper.

Not only is the “decision” broadly fictitious, it’s also completely infeasible to move 10,000 students onto campus. There is no space. Unless the Tories are planning to build a massive tower block, not that the University would want to waste funds on such a project, while throwing away Bath’s World Heritage Status (which the council uses an excuse not to do anything ever). Bath would probably not enjoy the prospect of becoming the country’s only university with such a silly policy and thus losing however many applicants. It would also wreak havoc on the Oldfield Park economy, which has already suffered the collapse of Woolworths.

Students should be alarmed that such an important debate can take place without them knowing or being informed. Let’s thank these Bath Tories for informing us just in time!

So no, Fabian. No, we will not be terrorised, no, we will not be forced to live on campus and NO, we will not be voting Conservative!

The government is in trouble, its President is struggling with a huge crisis, so the Spanish conservative party, El Partido Popular is getting excited.

However, its leader, Mariano Rajoy, has hardly been seen in public over the past few weeks, since the government announced its policy to reform pensions.

Though his PP followers are putting pressure on him to ask for the upcoming elections, Zapatero’s resignation or even a “motion of censure”, Rajoy has been strangely hesitant and it is making the party nervous.

A good example was a political meeting (in Spanish, a “mitin”, seriously) in Granada where the PP leader was due to speak. Around 10,000 supporters gathered and expected fireworks in Rajoy’s speech; they were soundly disappointed.

Instead, Rajoy weaselled out completely:

We have to keep the peace and remain calm. The Government isn’t doing it, so the PP must.
What I want is for Zapatero to come to Parliament and tell us what he’s going to do and how he’s going to do it.

He then went on to talk about his own “plan”, without divulging a single element of this supposed agenda.

Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, (PP parliamentary spokesperson) and Mariano Rajoy in the Congreso

A few days later, Zapatero did come to Parliament, as he has done on more occasions than any of his predecessors, the debate took place, yet the PP took a back seat. Instead, it was a group of Catalan ‘nationalists’ that was most fierce in its criticism, in an attempt to steal PP votes when elections soon take place in Catalonia. The Partido Popular remained almost silent throughout, preferring to speculate in the newspapers about the timing of those particular elections.

The PP is avoiding at all cost that public debate shifts focus onto their Opposition. At the moment, the pressure is on the government as it is forced to make tough decisions and strict measures. When a journalist finally managed to get hold of the Partido Popular’s parliamentary spokesperson, Esteban González Pons and ask why, if the government is fairing so poorly, they not ask for the forthcoming regional elections, he was told:

“Zapatero has a mandate and a parliamentary majority. We are a constructive opposition. So we are going to listen to him, and if they [the PSOE] ask for our help, they will have it.”

Coincidentally, ZP did ask for help on his Economic Recovery Package, in my previous post, but such help was not forthcoming. The debate on the economic crisis was quite technocratic, particularly ZP’s speech.

The strategy is quite clear; Rajoy wants to project an image of tranquillity against the frantic pace the Socialist Government is setting. The PP is currently around 45% against the PSOE’s 40% in the polls, and the “plan” seems to be to keep quiet and wait for a victory in expected regional and local elections to act as a springboard in 2012.

Zapatero, President of the Government of Spain was on top form last night in Malaga, where he made a surprisingly powerful speech to party members.

Play it through, even if you don’t understand Spanish. ZP has been the centre-left President of the Government since 2004, and has been fiercely criticised over the fact that Spain has been hit harder than most by the recession.

In the clip, he makes an incredibly important point that Gordon Brown would do well to repeat. Zapatero challenges Rajoy, leader of the Spanish conservative party (El Partido Popular) to be a little bit more constructive.

Here’s my rough translation of the most important part, from 0.45 to 1.08:

This is why I ask Rajoy to come and presents his proposals. I’m not asking him to take responsibility for the government, I’m asking him to take responsibility for Spanish society.

I’m not asking him to help the government, I’m asking him to help our country!

However, the PP has been surprisingly quiet as of late. Funny that.