The Battle for PACA: the Left, the Right and Le Pen
PACA is one of the 23 regions of France, it stands for Provence-Alpes-Cote D’Azur. The capital is Marseilles, which holds the regional assembly where most of the elected Regional Councillors work. I visited there once when they had some sort of big session going on ; it’s rather like any other hemicycle based parliament, and it was also there that I ate my first snail.
Most of my office time is spent in a branch of the Conseil Regional in Nice, a section mainly for civil servants, and apart from the incredibly pleasant atmosphere and kind people, it’s also a good place to be because the Socialists are in power.
However, the Regional Elections are taking place in March.
The Parti Socialiste took power from the Right in 1998 and has held it ever since, though in the present political climate coming from Paris, 2010 could be a difficult one.
Sarkozy is making it his business to reclaim a lot of regions lost to the Left in 2004, but PACA is on the top of his list along with Ile-de-France (No inside information from me on that one).
The pressure therefore rests on the Mayor of Toulon (and minister for veterans), Hubert Falco who is preparing himself to head the UMP list, though he has yet to officially declare it. PACA is fairly naturally right-wing, with Sarkozy himself winning 62% in 2007.
So on paper the region looks like it could fall to the Right in 2010, just as it looked in 1998. Normally, it would be a straight duel between the PS and the UMP, were it not for the far-right Front National.
Avoiding a Three-Way
The UMP’s biggest fear is that the Front gets more than 10% and thus qualifies to the second round, creating a PS vs. UMP vs. FN triangle. In 2004, the results were 45.18% vs. 33.82% vs. 21.00% respectively.
Clearly the FN is successful at sapping the support of the UMP, allowing the Left to jump ahead. It seems odd that the far-right would allow such a thing to happen. The explanation mainly comes from the FN leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, for whom PACA is his old stomping ground as an MEP for the South East, and so it comes from pride more than ambition.
Note here the stark lack of principle in Sarkozy compared to Chirac. Chirac would never do any deals with the FN and fired anyone who did (Not a No Platform, just a No Bargaining policy). Sarko, on the other hand, is determined to grab as much as he can, and the UMP have been in discussion with Philippe de Villiers and his far-right but not quite the Front team (MPF party, for you experts).
Hubert Falco, UMP, keeps his cards close to his chest
The regional level of the UMP is under a strict keep-quiet policy under Sarkozy’s orders. The line from HQ is nothing else than “We’re getting on with the task at hand.” Dealing with the recession and all that kind of thing; there’s an economic crisis going on, people aren’t bothered with silly things like elections that happen every six years.
Falco, set to be the local boss, will of course have to leave his city of Toulon, and the department, to which he claimed he was dearly attached. Much like how Estrosi said his only loyalty was to Nice before he became Minister for Industry.
Michel Vauzelle, Parti Socialiste, wants to keep the Left united
This gent is going for a third mandate as Monsieur Le Président de la Région PACA which is coincidentally how many times I have spoken to him. (We get on well.)
His plan is a coalition of the Left (if it worked before…) however, this typically does not include Communists who have their own group. This time, it probably won’t include the Greens, as they’ve gained a bit of confidence since the EU elections and want to go it alone. (Morons) Vauzelle’s response was “What do they think they’re playing at?” He’s a very good bloke.
Jean-Marie Le Pen, Front National, wants to exact his revenge
As he’s past 80, these will be without doubt Le Pen’s last elections (Mark my words!), but he sees them as going to be triumphant. He didn’t run in 2004 because he was ineligible and left someone else at the top of the FN list, but with the big boss in town, the party might do surprisingly well. Last time when his part got about 20% he said the results were less than they were hoping for.
Le Pen’s strategy will be to go after those right-wingers taken in but then disappointed by Sarkozy, in addition to winning about 10% in the three “heaviest” departments. If they get past 10% in the regional, I won’t be the only one not surprised.
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