Since I wrote my last article (here) explaining the situation surrounding the elections of the Conseil Régional PACA (Provence-Alpes-Cote D’Azur) we have had an important development!

Hubert Falco, who was widely tipped as the man to wrangle PACA from the Socialists, has officially refused orders to lead the UMP list.

hubert falco 449635 Sarkozy disobeyed by his party in PACA

The papers (including myself) were all too quick to draw the battle lines. However Falco’s refusal means that the UMP (particularly Sarkozy) is in substantial disarray, with no local candidate known well enough to take an important and symbolic prize.

Sarkozy has very little choice, given that he can no longer force Falco into it. After a public “no”, a public “well all right then” would not play very well in such a close contest.

The only real alternative could be Sarkozy’s minime, Christian Estrosi. Yet the Mayor of Nice also has far too many other jobs (including a ministerial post), and it’s a very risky proposition. By moving Estrosi to PACA, it creates a power vacuum in Nice, leaving the door open to anti-Sarkozyites in a key city.

Estrosi is thus unlikely to accept, which means Sarko is probably going to have to send someone down from Paris. French elections are highly localised, so without Falco the goalposts for the Socialists have just become that bit wider.

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